The Progressive Populist Today Blog: Editorial: Biden Rises Back to Life

Saturday, March 14, 2020

Editorial: Biden Rises Back to Life

Bernie Sanders perhaps got a little heady after his success in the first three Democratic primary contests. After battling Pete Buttigieg to a draw in Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders appeared to hit his stride when he roared out of Nevada with a head of steam, based on a 40% plurality in a seven-candidate race, which got him 24 national delegates, but after five years calling for a revolution that would break up the Democratic establishment, he shouldn’t have been surprised when the establishment fought back.

But Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., was The Man who brought Joe Biden back to life with his endorsement three days before the South Carolina primary, and that was the sign black voters, who form the base of the state’s Democratic Party, needed as they helped Biden get 48% of the primary vote in South Carolina for the former vice president’s first win. That set up a showdown on March 3, when 14 states voted on “Super Tuesday.”

Exit polls showed majorities of Democratic voters in every Super Tuesday state said they would prefer a nominee who can beat Trump over one with whom they agree on other issues. Clyburn’s advice resonated, along with the endorsements of former rivals Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Beto O’Rourke on the eve of Super Tuesday, and they apparently helped Democratic voters conclude that Biden had the best chance of beating Trump and helping downballot Democratic candidates. Biden won Super Tuesday with 63% of Alabama primary voters, 53.3% in Virginia, 43% in North Carolina, 41.7% in Tennessee, 40.5% in Arkansas, 38.7% in Oklahoma, 38.6% in Minnesota, 34.5% in Texas, 34% in Maine and 33.5% in Massachusetts. Bernie won Colorado with 36.8%, Utah with 32.8% and his home state of Vermont with 50.7%. A week after the election, California was still being counted, but Sanders led with 34%. However, on March 10 Biden won primaries in Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi and Idaho.

Sanders had to be disappointed in the failure of younger voters to turn out en masse for the Super Tuesday primaries. Participation by voters younger than 30 didn’t exceed 20% in any state, according to an analysis of exit polls.

Given the huge turnout, including youth turnout, in the 2018 midterms, many had predicted, or at least hoped, that the trend would continue during the 2020 Democratic primaries. But so far, at least, there is no clear evidence of greater participation by the young people that Sanders has said he can motivate to get out to the polls.

Young voters were an important part of the coalition that propelled Sanders to victory in California, where Sanders led Biden by 34% to 27.2%. But those under age 30, who voted for Sanders over Biden by 61% to 7%, made up just 11% of the electorate, according to exit polls. Another 35% were between the ages of 45 and 64, and they split between Biden (27%) and Sanders (26%), while voters who were 65 or older were 30% of the electorate and they voted for Biden over Sanders, 38% to 18%.

In Texas, voters under 30 voted for Sanders over Biden by a margin of 58% to 13%, but just 15% of voters were younger than 30, while 38% were between 45 and 64, and they voted for Biden over Sanders 42% to 21%, and 25% were 65 and older, and those seniors voted for Biden over Sanders by 43% to 16%.

Even in Sanders’ home state of Vermont, voters younger than 30 made up just 11% of Super Tuesday voters, according to exit polls. Nearly 70% of voters were over age 45.

Health care remains an important issue for Democratic voters, and exit polls showed a majority of voters in every Democratic primary so far supporting a government-run plan that replaces private health insurance. Support for a government insurance plan ranged from 50% in Massachusetts and South Carolina to 58% in Michigan and Missouri, 63% in Texas, 69% in Maine and 73% in Vermont.

But even if Democrats regain the Senate majority, they have been told they can’t expect a Medicare for All bill to pass Congress anytime soon because Republicans would block it with a filibuster in the Senate, which normally would require 60 votes to overcome. That would require Democrats to oust 13 Republicans. Including special elections in Arizona and Georgia, Republicans will be defending 23 seats in November, but flipping 13 seats is on the far side of unlikely. However, if Democrats pick up three seats and win the vice presidency, they would regain control of the Senate. If they keep control of the House — and if the Supreme Court declares the ACA unconstitutional — Democrats could pass most of the elements of the Medicare expansion through the Senate with a simple majority by using the budget reconciliation process.

Democrats used the reconciliation process to amend the Affordable Care Act in 2010 and Republicans used the process to try to repeal the ACA (and to pass their massive tax cut for billionaires and corporations) in 2017.

Democrats might not be able to pass all of the provisions of the Medicare for All bills sponsored by Sanders in the Senate and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) in the House through reconciliation, but they could lower the eligibility age for Medicare and eliminate cost sharing, as amendments to the Social Security Act. Biden would rather reinforce the ACA and add the public option for Medicare, but the Supreme Court could force the Democrats’ hand by overturning Obamacare after the election, as Republicans have demanded.

Democrats need to flip at least three Senate seats (if they also win the vice presidency) to regain control of the Senate. Recent polls by Public Policy Polling have found at least four Republican incumbent senators trailing Democratic challengers by four or more points, including Sara Gideon leading Sen. Susan Collins 47-43 in Maine, Mark Kelly leading Sen. Martha McSally 47-42 in Arizona, Cal Cunningham leading Sen. Thom Tillis 46-41 in North Carolina and John Hickenlooper leading Sen. Cory Gardner 51-38 in Colorado. Two-term Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, who had earlier ruled out a Senate race when he was running for president, gave Democrats hope March 9 when he launched a challenge of Sen. Steve Daines.

Democrats also are targeting Sen. Jodi Ernst, R-Iowa; an open seat in Kansas, where polarizing vote suppressor Kris Kobach, who lost a governor’s race in 2018, is the likely Republican candidate; two seats in Georgia, where Democrats can be competitive if they manage to stay on voter rolls; and challenges of “Moscow Mitch” McConnell in Kentucky, Lindsey Graham in South Carolina and Sen. John Cornyn in Texas.

Democratic Sen. Doug Jones faces long odds in winning re-election in Trump-loving Alabama, but he might get some help from a seven-candidate Republican primary fight that set up a March 31 runoff between former Sen. Jeff Sessions, who is trying to win back the seat he gave up to disappoint Trump as attorney general, and Tommy Tuberville, the former Auburn football coach who has become a MAGA acolyte and let the first round with 33.39% of the vote, followed by Sessions with 31.65%. Republicans also are targeting Sen. Gary Peters, D-Michigan, who led his Republican challenger by six points in a February Quinnipiac poll.

The Democratic presidential race isn’t over yet — less than half of the states have been heard from —but if the Sanders team wants to overtake Biden they’ll need to do a better job getting their supporters to the polls in the remaining 27 states. And please, don’t say anything you can’t walk back after the nomination is decided. Whichever side wins will need the support of the rival campaign to beat Trump in the fall. — JMC