The pundits have been warning that if Democrats choose a progressive candidate, such as Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, they’ll revive Trump’s re-election chances, because moderate voters will be scared by their progressive proposals, such as expanding Medicare to cover everybody, protecting and extending Social Security, and taking action to reverse climate change. But we fear that if Democrats nominate a “moderate,” they might put their progressive base to sleep.
We’ve heard a few forecasts of a potential Republican sweep if Sanders or Warren is the standard bearer — a 40-state loss, or even a McGovernite 49-state loss.
Of course, McGovern was a liberal Democrat when the party was badly split over the Vietnam war as well as backlash against attempts to desegregate public schools and other domestic troubles. And Richard Nixon, while corrupt, was an experienced politician who at least pretended to be concerned about the whole country, not just the people who voted for him and donated to his campaign.
Trump won the White House in the political equivalent of drawing the inside straight in poker — beating Hillary Clinton in the traditionally Democratic strongholds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a combined total of fewer than 80,000 votes, while Clinton beat Trump in the popular vote by 2.8 million votes nationwide. The Electoral College held sway, but Trump has ruled since then as if the people who voted against him — and the cities and states where they live — are his enemies, to whom he owes only revenge. So he has played to his base, and he is the only president in the history of the Gallup poll never to crack 50% approval. As of Aug. 14, the Gallup poll showed 41% approval and 54% disapproval.
Trump has made little effort to reach out to swing voters. “I think my base is so strong, I’m not sure that I have to do that,” he told Time in June. The mantra of Trump 2020 is “turnout, turnout, turnout,” campaign manager Brad Parscale said. “People all think you have to change people’s minds. You have to get people to show up that believe in you.”
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in August found 52% either would or were likely to vote for the Democratic nominee, while only 40% said they would or were likely to vote for Trump. A separate Morning Consult tracking poll of Trump’s support in the states showed that, as of the end of July, Trump was “under water,” with more disapproving him than approving, in at least six states Trump carried in 2016, including Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and Florida and North Carolina were statistically tied. Of course, this comes with the caveat that polls this early are not predictive. But they do show Trump is very vulnerable.
How can Democrats excite their base to get out the vote? They should start with promoting popular initiatives, such as expanding Medicare to cover everybody, as polls have shown 70% of adults — including a majority of Republicans — support. At least they support it until they’re told that it will result in higher taxes, or that they’ll lose their private insurance — and the for-profit health industrial complex is already working to stir up voters’ fears that the government will mess things up.
Under Bernie Sanders’ Medicare for All plan, individuals would get comprehensive health coverage, including dental and vision care, with no deductibles or copayments, for less cost than they now pay in premiums and copays. Seniors who now get Medicare will get better coverage, along with those under 65. And reputable businesses, who struggle to find affordable health insurance plans to cover their employees, will no longer have to compete with skinflint businesses who don’t offer health coverage for their workers. But if it makes voters feel better, we can let for-profit companies still try to sell insurance.
Democrats also should campaign on protecting, and expanding, Social Security, as Republicans are drawing up plans to slash Medicare and Social Security if Trump wins a second term. The New York Times reported Aug. 21 that, with the budget deficit set to surpass $1 trillion in 2020 thanks in large part to Trump’s tax cuts for the rich and his trade war, Republicans and right-wing groups are pressuring the president to take a sledgehammer to Social Security and Medicare, widely popular programs Trump vowed not to touch during his 2016 campaign.
Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told the Times his party has discussed cutting Medicare and Social Security with Trump and said the president has expressed openness to the idea. In his budget for fiscal year 2020, Trump already has called for $845 billion to be cut from Medicare and $25 billion to be cut from Social Security.
Democrats should raise alarms about Trump’s plan to cut Medicare and Social Security, and embrace the Social Security 2100 Act, sponsored by Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.), that would lift the cap on wages subject to the Social Security tax, which is now $128,400. Removing that cap would take care of the shortfall expected after 2035, when the Social Security surplus of $2.9 trillion will otherwise be exhausted. Taxing the wages of the wealthy would also allow an increase in Social Security benefits for the first time in more than 40 years. The Republican “plan” is to let benefits be cut 20% in 2035.
Perhaps most importantly, Democratic presidential nominees should promote mobilization to avert climate catastrophe. The Democratic National Committee apparently doesn’t think climate change deserves a debate on its own, but voters want to know what the candidates will do. Warren released her own climate plan in June, a $2 trillion package that commits the federal government to spend $150 billion a year over 10 years on low-carbon technology, increases energy research funding and funds a $100 billion Green Marshall Plan to aid poorer countries projected to suffer the worst as global temperatures rise.
Biden was scored 83% pro-environment from the League of Conservation Voters during his 36 years in the Senate. He presented a climate platform in June that embraced the Green New Deal as a framework and foresees $1.7 trillion in spending over 10 years, along with $3.3 trillion in investments by the private sector and state and local governments.
Sanders on Aug. 22 proposed his own Green New Deal plan that would transition the US economy to 100% renewable energy and create 20 million union jobs over a decade. The cost — $16.3 trillion — might sound like a lot, but Sanders says it will pay for itself through a combination of new taxes, fees and litigation against fossil fuels companies, new taxes on corporations and wealthy people, together with cuts in military spending related to US reliance on oil and savings across the economy, InsideClimateNews.org reported. Republicans who still claim the 2017 tax cut for the rich will pay for itself have no room to complain.
In short, whoever gets the Democratic nomination will get framed by the corporate media as a socialist — even if it’s Joe Biden. Republicans called Barack Obama a socialist, so why not his running mate? And we’ll vote for any of them against Trump.
With the election year coming up, Democrats should embrace the spirit of Franklin D. Roosevelt — who was not really a socialist, either, but made capitalism accountable to the people. Democrats should give voters a reason to believe, once again, that government can make their lives better. — JMC
From The Progressive Populist, September 15, 2019
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