By N. GUNASEKARAN
In one of the most important elections in the history of India, voters have elected members of India’s Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament. As per the Constitution of India, Parliamentary elections should be held once every five years. The 17th general election in 2019 was held in seven phases from April 11 to May 19 across 29 states. More than 8,000 candidates from seven national parties, about 300 state parties, other smaller parties and independents were in the fray. About 900 million citizens were eligible to vote and and they cast their votes to elect 543 members of Parliament. Results are not expected to be announced for several days.
Although elections were held peacefully in many constituencies, there were a number of booth capturing and malpractices in the states like Tripura and violent clashes happened in West Bengal. The Election commission of India was criticized by the opposition for not acting in an impartial manner. Many objections were raised during the election process about the large spending by the candidates for road shows, advertisements, etc., exceeding the amount of money, allowed for spending on candidates’ entire campaign. The Election Commission of India has fixed the limit as seven million rupees ($100,000). And numerous complaints were lodged about bribing the voters.
In the last elections, held in 2014, the Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Narendra Modi, had won and assumed office. It was then seen by many political observers as the triumph of Hindu Majoritarianism in Indian politics. They predicted the shift in Indian polity, from the traditional principle of secularism which sought democratically accommodating minorities on an equal footing with Hindu majority. For the past five years, attacks on the rights of minorities and physical attacks by Hindu outfits have increased across the Indian states. So the voters were really concerned about India’s social cohesion.
This was explained by renowned journalist Prannoy Roy in an interview with Moneycontrol: “Based on our travels around the villages and small towns of the country, the factor that stands out the most is the level of polarization among Hindu voters that we have rarely seen before. Voters either love and admire Modi – or dislike Modi intensely. Virtually, no voter is indifferent.” The politically polarized electoral campaign had various issues like performance of Narendra Modi-led government, serious economic problems, nationalism, social discontent, divide on religious identity, etc. The popular perception among the voters was that the BJP-led government have failed to address the alarmingly increasing unemployment and farmers’ distress levels. The majority of the voters are from rural villages. Among them, declining agricultural income, corporate takeover of lands, agricultural unemployment, farmers suicide, etc., were the main concerns.
In 2017, Prime Minister Modi announced a draconian economic measure, called Demonetization. By overnight, his administration banned high-value cash denominations. The government claimed that it was an attempt to combat corruption and tax evasion. But the move crippled small businesses and destabilized India's cash-based economy. Non-formal sector, urban trade and self-employed small industries came to a standstill and millions of workers lost their jobs and livelihoods. The demonetization and other economic policies affected the middle classes, which included a large backward caste population who were historically marginalized and they might have opted to vote for the opposition parties, either the Congress or regional parties,
Recent terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir and subsequent hostilities between India and Pakistan had an impact on electoral campaign.The BJP tried to prop up this issue for its nationalist appeal. However, the economic policies and the economic slowdown became the main plank and it may certainly hurt the governing party.
The Indian electoral system is based on a first-past-the-post system, and this system helped the BJP In the 2014 election. It polled 31% of the vote and won 282 out of 543 seats while the Congress got 19.3% with just 44 seats. So small percentages of voters with a swing of even 3 to 4 percent can decide the outcome. To avoid this drawback, there is a long-pending demand, particularly from the Left, to opt for a electoral system of proportional representation.
But in this election, such drawbacks in the system would not be advantageous for the governing party. Most of the media and political commentators believed the BJP could not retain its Lok Sabha majority and the Indian National Congress under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, many regional parties opposed to BJP and the Left would come forward to form a coalition government. The forming of alliances would be the critical factor in determining the next government
The BJP’s basic ideology was the Hindu nationalist policies,vcalled Hindutva, which is based on strengthening of old caste and social oppression. the Dalits, who are socially oppressed in the caste hierarchy, and women were affected by these policies.It is expected that higher women turnout and that of other weaker groups may harm the prospects of the BJP
The national parties have little presence in many states. Hence the role of regional parties have become an important factor in forming the new government.For example, in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state and Tamilnadu, the southern state, both together have about 120 seats and neither BJP nor Congress could gain much in these states. India’s federalism demands to heed the democratic aspirations of all nationalities in various states. If the parties come together to form a coalition on the basis of definite people-oriented policies, that could advance the interests of the poor and working people. But the corporate capital interests that drive the policy orientation of many parties may hinder the meaningful federal plurality.
As far as the political narrative of the political parties are concerned, except the Left, no party had constructed an alternative set of policies replacing the ongoing neoliberal policies. Only such alternative policies could be favorable for the betterment of India’s weaker sections among the youth, women, middle class, rural poor and Dalits.
N. Gunasekaran is a political activist and writer based in Chennai, India.
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