Each new day seems to bring another story predicting
Democratic disaster in the November election. One day it’s statistician Nate
Silver predicting gloom for the Democrats. The next day it’s an obscure pundit
like David Wasserman or Pew Center director Andrew Kahut.
All the overarching story lines by which media outlets try
to make sense of everyday news seem to have a built in bias favoring the
Republicans. One narrative is about
discontent with Obama over the healthcare law, instead of discontent with the
Republicans for cutting food stamps and unemployment benefits and blocking
passage of a bill to increase the minimum wage.
Another narrative is about the large sums of money the Koch brothers and
others are spending to elect Republican candidates, and not about the large
natural advantage Democrats have if their constituencies come to the polls.
Finally there is the story of the primaries, which, as in
2010, is all about the Republican candidates for the mainstream news media and
nothing about the Democratic candidates.
Stirring up interest in the Republican primaries will no doubt help
bring out the party faithful in November.
These narrative spins wouldn’t disturb me if I thought the
Democrats were taking the 2014 elections seriously, but so far there are few
signs that they are. The President is content to sit on his treasure trove of
campaign contributions. In too many states, Democrats are me-too-ing
Republicans on such issues as charter schools, gun control, health care reform
and taxes. For example, many of the positions taken by Governor Andrew Cuomo
are embarrassingly right-wing. I can understand why many Democrats in New York
might stay home rather than vote for a man who wants to lower taxes on
businesses and give additional funding to charter schools, which are nothing
more than vehicles for breaking unions and paying teaches less. But Democrats staying home will make it
easier for Republicans to tighten their grip on the U.S. House of
Representatives and win the Senate. With candidates such as Cuomo, the
Democrats seem doomed to repeat the mistake of 2010.
Republicans are not taking any chances, however, passing
laws in whatever states they control to make it harder to vote. But progressives take heart. Republicans can’t
prevent eligible voters from exercising their voting franchise, all they can do
is demand identification and limit voting hours.
It’s too early in the year to start to stress the importance
of voting to millennial and minorities. By the time September and October rolls
around, the atmospherics could be better for Democrats. Certainly as more
people benefit from the Affordable Care Act, anger against the President, whose
name is tied to the bill, will diminish.
Perhaps, as in 2012, voters will respond negatively to moves to suppress
the vote and overwhelm the polls.
If I were the Democrats, I would create a one-page set of
messages on the bad that will come out of Republican control of both houses of
Congress and start repeating it in ads starting sometime in August. I would
also conduct as aggressive a voter registration and turnout campaign as
possible. I would treat the 2014 election as if it were more important than
2016, and for one simple reason: it is a
more important election. Emerging national demographics favor the Democrats in
national elections and they will likely win in 2016, no matter what. But it
will be for naught if the new Democratic President faces a hostile Congress.
Of course, if the Democrats run a Republican in all but name
such as Andrew Cuomo, it won’t make any difference to the country who wins.
We’ll continue down the path of economic decline and social disintegration
created by policies that take money from the poor and middle class and give it
to those who already are wealthy.
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