Republicans were in bad shape going into Labor Day and Donald Trump appears to be determined to make it worse.
Trump insisted on holding a pep rally masquerading as a Republican midterm convention in Dallas Sept. 9-10, in his attempt to make the midterm elections all about himself. That is the last thing many Republican House and Senate candidates want, as Trump’s favorably ratings have dropped to the low 30s range.
“BIG NEWS!” Trump proclaimed when he announced the midterm convention on “Truth Social” July 30. “For the first time ever, the Republican Party will hold a MIDTERM CONVENTION. It will be in Dallas, Texas — One of my favorite places in the World. It will be fantastic! It has never been done before, and will be a truly Historic Event. We are going to celebrate the GREAT AMERICAN COMEBACK.”
But Trump’s ratings have continued to drop as his arbitrary and erratic tariffs on imported goods have inflated costs, and his war on Iran stopped Iranian oil exports, increasing demand for U.S. oil, which has increased fuel prices to record levels in the United States. That has played a major part in reducing Trump’s popularity to the level George W. Bush dropped to at the close of his second term, when opposition to the Iraq war was growing and a massive housing bubble and risky subprime mortgages caused an economic collapse. Bush’s recession set up Barack Obama to win the White House in 2008, backed up by a Democratic majority in Congress, including a filibuster-proof 60-seat supermajority in the Senate.
\During Trump’s second term, he has moved further toward assuming dictatorial powers, even as he shows increasing signs of dementia. He has accelerated use of executive orders, signed with his Sharpie, or simply ordering projects such as replacing the East Wing of the White House with a ballroom on his own say-so instead of seeking approval from Congress, even when Republicans control both chambers.
Presidents have used executive orders when one or both chambers of Congress are controlled by an opposing party, to try to navigate gridlock and legislative opposition. But analysis by the States United Democracy Center found that from Jan. 20, 2025, to Jan. 12, 2026, despite unified control of Congress, Trump issued 228 executive orders. The volume and pace of Trump’s decrees far exceed every other president in contemporary history. Trump’s use of executive orders has repeatedly overstepped constitutional limits of presidential authority, forcing states and others to push back, resulting in courts invalidating several of his most authoritarian decrees.
Trump has used executive orders to intrude on state authority in administering elections and he’s deployed state National Guards when local police response didn’t satisfy him. These orders have sparked litigation between states and the administration, and Republicans have little taste for challenging Trump’s usurpations.
During Trump’s first term, 246 lawsuits challenged his administration’s use of executive power and regulatory actions. The administration prevailed in only 22% of those cases. In the second term, at least 33 of Trump’s executive orders are facing court challenges.
Among them is Executive Order 14248, which asserts federal control over election practices. It directs the Elections Assistance Commission to require documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration, requires states to reject absentee and mail-in ballots received after Election Day, and threatens to withhold federal funding for states that do not comply with the order.
State officials have argued that the Constitution clearly puts states in charge of running election.
A federal district judge Sept. 4 issued an injunction blocking the U.S. Postal Service from enforcing key parts of a rule Trump ordered in March that would restrict voting by mail and would authorize the US Postal Service to implement rules to that end.
Federal judge Indira Talwani in Massachusetts ruled the order likely was unconstitutional and unlawful — and enforcing it would make voter disenfranchisement “practically inevitable.”
The administration on Sept. 6 appealed to the Supreme Court to allow the new restrictions on mail ballots in time for the midterms.
Republicans hoped they could build a firewall against Democratic gains in the House when the Republican-majority Supreme Court in April 2025 gutted the Voting Rights Act, making it much harder for voters of color to challenge racially discriminatory vote dilution. That let red states gerrymander Democratic House districts into Republican majorities, and Trump in July 2025 told Texas Republicans to rig their map to flip up to five Democratic House seats. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered a legislative session to get it done.
But a poll conducted in August by Texas Southern University found Democratic nominees were still leading in three heavily gerrymandered districts. Two are held by Democratic representatives whom the GOP sought to oust with the new map.
The Texas gerrymander was based on the belief Republican gains among Texas Latino voters in the 2024 election were solid.
However, Latinos’ support for the GOP has dropped as Trump has aggressively targeted Brown and Black immigrants for arrest and deportation, and many Latino citizens know people who have been hassled by ICE agents, if they haven’t been hassled themselves. Latinos also don’t like paying more than $4 a gallon for gas and higher grocery costs than they were paying when Joe Biden was president. In an average of three polls YouGov conducted in Trump’s second term, his net approval among Latino voters has fallen to minus 31 points.
Democrats need a net gain of four districts to win a majority in the House. Republicans can lose no more than two districts to retain a majority in the chamber.
The Senate, once seen as a longshot for Democrats, now appears in striking distance. And both parties are investing major resources in states and districts where Trump won by double digits in 2024.
If Democrats flip Republican seats in Ohio and Iowa while retaining Michigan, they will almost certainly net the four seats total needed to take control of the Senate during Trump’s final two years. Jonathan Martin noted at Politico Aug. 30. Dems are expected to capture North Carolina, and they hope to pick off Senate seats in Maine, Alaska and Texas.
You might hear some lefties discount the hope that Democrats regaining the congressional majority will make a difference. But while Democrats might not succeed in expanding Medicare to cover everybody while Trump can veto such bills, remember that Republicans want to take away all the social gains achieved since the New Deal in the 1930s, starting out with Social Security and Medicare. And Republicans hope to start by reducing Social Security benefits next year.
A Democratic wave at least can raise Hell with Trump ruling by Sharpie. So prepare to vote early if you can, and if you vote by mail, take your ballot to an election drop boxes (ID may be necessary), or get a postal clerk to postmark your ballot in plenty of time to gt it delivered by Nov. 3. Just vote Democratic. They might disappoint, but Republicans have forfeited your trust. — JMC
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