The Progressive Populist Today Blog: Editorial: What to Expect from Trump 2.0

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Editorial: What to Expect from Trump 2.0

Joe Biden actually did a great job steering the economic recovery after Donald Trump mismanaged the COVID pandemic. Biden got the vaccines out, resolved supply chain disruptions, got manufacturing back on track and the economy grew 16 million new jobs. Gross domestic product grew 15.5% while unemployment dropped to a 50-year low. But grocery bills were still too high.

So, rather than elect Biden’s protégé, Vice President Kamala Harris, voters turned to the disgraced former president, who botched the pandemic response, as 450,000 Americans died from COVID-19 in his final year in office. The U.S. death toll was 40% higher than the average of other wealthy nations in the Group of Seven.. He presided over the loss of 2.7 million jobs and, after he lost the 2020 election to Biden, Trump claimed Democrats stole the election. He inspired a violent assault on the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to stop certification of the results. Trump was later indicted by federal prosecutor Jack Smith for his role in the Capitol attack and by Fulton County, Georgia, District Attorney Fani Willis for his attempt to subvert Georgia election results.

During his four years off the job, Trump was found liable for rape and fraud and he was convicted in New York of 34 felonies in connection with his misuse of business records to cover up a 2016 payment to stop Stormy Daniels from discussing her sexual relationship with Trump while Melania was nursing their infant son. But voters were willing to give the adulterous con man another chance, and he carried 31 states, including all seven swing states, to win a second term with 50.4% of the popular vote and a 312-226 margin in the Electoral College. Once again, as H.L. Mencken predicted in 1920, “The White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

But the moron can do a lot of damage. Trump plans to replace the Affordable Care Act with a yet-to-be-determined concept. He’ll put inflationary tariffs on imported goods and seek to repeal the CHIPS Act, which Democrats passed in 2022 to provide $52.7 billion to promote computer chips research and manufacturing and strengthen US supply chain resilience. Also targeted is the Inflation Reduction Act, which Democrats passed in 2022 to let Medicare negotiate reduced prescription drug prices, and promoted domestic energy production, including clean energy resources to address climate change.

Trump has promised he won’t mess with Social Security and Medicare and other sacrosanct institutions, but writers of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 to reshape the federal government seem to have other ideas, and Trump tried to undermine Social Security in his first term. He certainly won’t promote clean energy.

Trump has demanded that Republicans let him make recess appointments of Cabinet members and federal judges, who would serve without Senate approval because he apparently believes even Republicans won’t be able to stomach some of his choices. He also has proposed to pull the U.S. back from overseas alliances, reverse longstanding health rules, prosecute his political adversaries and round up millions of immigrants living in the country illegally.

Trump also will try to replace as many as 50,000 career civil servants with political loyalists. At the end of his first term, he issued an executive order to replace senior civil servants, but Biden rescinded the order, so it has never been tested in court.

Brett Meiselas, co-founder of the MeidasTouch Network, noted Nov. 10 that Trump voters already were experiencing “buyer’s remorse” in the days after the election, as they considered how Trump’s proposed tariffs and other proposed policy changes would affect them directly.

In the hours after the election, data from Google Trends showed, searches for terms like “change my vote” and “are tariffs bad” surged, particularly in key battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Meiselas pointed to these searches as an indicator of the swift realization among voters about the potential consequences of Trump’s trade policies. Many Trump supporters mistakenly believed that tariffs would financially impact foreign producers rather than U.S. businesses and consumers—a misconception now being addressed as businesses adjust to expected cost increases.

The economic realities of tariffs are quickly setting in for small business owners, many of whom are directly affected. Meiselas noted an anonymous statement on social media that reported employees of a small manufacturing company in Pennsylvania were told they would not get holiday bonuses as the company hoped to buy a year’s worth of products before Jan. 21, when prices are expected to increase due to tariffs. The company’s president reportedly had to explain to workers what tariffs are and how they function, revealing a widespread misunderstanding of the economic policy.

For larger companies, the impact of tariffs is no less stark. Automotive companies like Nissan and Stellantis are already bracing for cost increases and have announced impending layoffs to mitigate anticipated losses. CNN recently highlighted that prices of common goods are expected to rise as companies pass along the cost of tariffs to consumers. Leaders from major U.S. corporations, including AutoZone, have confirmed that price increases are on the way, with some anticipating hikes as early as next year, MeidasTouch noted.

Trump’s plans to order immediate deportation of immigrants, including many who are awaiting review of their applications for asylum, are causing distress for immigrants who supported Trump. Meiselas told of a Trump supporter from Guatemala who underestimated the likelihood that Trump’s policies would jeopardize his status, a realization echoed by business leaders who rely on immigrant labor and are now bracing for challenges in finding workers to replace those who are taken from jobsites.

Inflation in groceries was noted in 2020 through 2022 as the nation struggled with the pandemic. Big bacon producers like Smithfield Foods and Tyson Foods closed plants in spring 2020 after thousands of workers got sick and some died, Fast Company noted.

Plant closures led to shortages as home-bound Americans were shopping for more breakfast bacon. Bacon prices peaked in October 2022 at $7.60 a pound, up 30% from October 2019. By September 2024, bacon averaged $6.95 a pound, a reduction of 8.5%.

Eggs were impacted by avian flu in 2022-23, as the average price of a dozen large eggs rose from $1.46 in January 2021 to a peak of $4.82 in January 2023, but dropped 20% to $3.82 in September 2024.

Immigrant sweeps are likely to have a big impact on agriculture and food processing. Mass deportations won’t make bacon or eggs any cheaper and are more likely to reverse the relatively modest reductions that were achieved under Biden.

Employers of undocumented immigrants who think Trump was just kidding about the mass deportations will find out soon enough.

Trump wants to scare us, but in two years we’ll get a chance to hold Trump-enabling Republicans in Congress accountable. In addition to all House members, 21 Republican senators and 13 Democrats will be up for election, including a special election for the seat Vice President-elect J.D. Vance is giving up. The 2026 election will be our opportunity to make Trump a lame duck. — JMC