For months, pundits have been predicting Republicans would win control of Congress in the midterms because that’s what usually happens. But these are not usual times.
Republicans hoped they could build outrage about inflation, particularly the rapid increase of gasoline and grocery prices as the COVID lockdown eased, and unease with cultural changes to engage White voters in the midterm elections.
House Republicans on Sept. 23 unveiled a “Commitment to America,” with an inspirational video full of scenes presented images of an imagined America that were actually taken from stock footage from Russia and Ukraine. The Commitment has four goals: “An Economy that’s Strong,” ‘A Nation That’s Safe,” “A Future that’s Built on Freedom” and “A Government that’s Accountable.” Which Joan McCarter of DailyKos read as: tax cuts for the rich, immigrant-bashing, privatizing Social Security and Medicare, and endless hours of “oversight” hearings about Hunter Biden and (probably) Hillary’s emails.
One of Biden’s first actions after taking office was to sign an executive order directing the use of taxpayer dollars to US manufacturing, increasing domestic competitiveness and rebalancing US trade. Democrats in March 2021 passed the American Recovery Plan, which extended unemployment benefits, provided a $1,400 direct economic stimulus payment to individuals and increased the Child Tax Credit to $3,600 per child under 6, which lifted 2.9 million children out of poverty and caused child poverty to fall from 9.7% in 2020 to 5.2% in 2021. ARP also provided housing assistance as well as aid to small businesses, schools and state and local governments. In November 2021, Biden signed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), which invested $1.2 trillion into rebuilding our nation’s infrastructure.
The economy boomed, adding 10 million jobs and reducing the unemployment rate to 3.5% in July, but a majority of Americans were persuaded by Republicans and their media allies that Biden’s policies hurt the economy and fueled inflation.
Then gas prices started falling, inflation eased and Democrats in August passed the $750 billion Inflation Reduction Act, a comprehensive bill that provides rebates and tax credits for renewable energy improvements targeted to reduce carbon emissions 40% by 2030, and cut health care costs for families and and prescription drug costs for seniors. It also put a 15% minimum tax on corporations that earn more than $1 billion a year and 1% tax on stock buybacks, and expanded IRS resources for tax assistance and enforcement against wealthy tax cheaters.
At the same time, although much of the inflation was due to problems in supply lines as the nation came out of the COVID lockdown and oil companies pushing fuel prices to record highs to reap record profits, the Federal Reserve was working to drive down inflation by raising interest rates, which is meant to drive down wages. That punishes workers who had gained leverage to demand higher wages when the unemployment rate was 3.5% in July. They might lose that leverage if the unemployment rate rises.
Democrats face long but not impossible odds to keep control of the 435-seat House. Democrats now have 221, Republicans have 212 and two seats are vacant. A majority is 218 seats. Democrats were leading in the FiveThirtyEight average on generic congressional preferences by 1.9 percentage points Sept. 22, up from a 0.4-point advantage on Aug. 22. Cook Political Report finds that Democrats hold 162 solid seats, 13 seats are likely to remain Democratic and 17 seats lean Democratic, while Republicans have 188 solid seats, 13 likely Republican and 11 leaning Republican. That leaves 31 seats rated as tossups, including 22 now held by Democrats and nine now held by Republicans. If the loss of abortion rights has energized women, as recent special elections indicate, along with concerns about climate change and Republican threats to privatize Social Security and Medicare, a blue wave might well overcome Republican gerrymandering and keep Democrats in the majority.
In the Senate, 14 seats held by Democrats are up in the midterms and nine are considered solidly Democratic. Republicans are targeting five seats. Three seats, held by Mark Kelly in Arizona, Michael Bennett in Colorado and Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire, are rated as leaning Democratic.
Two races involving Democratic incumbents, Raphael Warnock in Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, are rated as tossups. Warnock faces a challenge from former football star Herschel Walker, while Cortez Masto faces former state attorney general Adam Laxalt and both races are way closer than they ought to be.
Among 21 seats now held by Republicans, Democrats hope to pick up three open seats in Pennsylvania, where Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is running a progressive populist campaign against celebrity TV doctor Mehmet Oz of New Jersey; North Carolina, where Democratic former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley is running against Rep. Ted Budd, a self-described “conservative warrior”; and Ohio, where US Rep. Tim Ryan, an economic populist who has worked to bring manufacturing jobs back to the state and advance tax cuts for the middle class, faces J.D. Vance, who wrote a bestselling book about his hillbilly roots but made a fortune as a venture capitalist on Wall Street and was endorsed by Trump.
Democrats also hope to unseat Sen. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, where Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has led in some polls. Among Johnson’s proposals is to put Social Security and Medicare up to annual votes on whether to fund senior benefits. Democrats also hope Democratic US Rep. Val Demings can pull off an upset of Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida.
Democrats should make it clear that in a new congressional session they’ll impose windfall profits taxes on companies that abuse their ability to extort high prices from consumers. With a net gain of two senators, Democrats can get working control of the Senate and, if necessary, do away with the filibuster to pass needed legislation that Republicans have been blocking with the complicity of a couple conservative Democrats.
Republicans have offered no serious proposals to whip inflation, combat crime or reform immigration procedures. Instead, they complain that Biden helped families get back on their feet in 2021. They claim Customs and Border Patrol reporting a record 2.5 million border enforcement actions for fiscal year 2022 is somehow proof that the border is open. And their main proposal to fight crime appears to be making sure everybody is carrying a firearm, and never mind the danger of crossfire and the occasional classroom massacre.
A month before the election, polls look good, but they’re meaningless if Democrats don’t get out the vote to keep democracy going. And vote Democratic all the way down the ballot, or Big Lie Republicans will put people in charge to steal the 2024 presidential election.
Vote early if you can, to avoid long lines on Nov. 8. Minnesota, South Dakota, Virginia, Wyoming, Illinois and Michigan started casting ballots in September. Most states allow early voting in October. Alabama, Connecticut, Mississippi and New Hampshire don’t allow in-person early voting. There are no excuses for not voting. — JMC
From The Progressive Populist, October 15, 2022
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