Vladimir Putin thought his conquest of Ukraine might take 72 hours. By the time sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union took effect, he figured, Kyiv would have fallen to his overwhelming Russian army and Ukraine would be brought back into the Russian orbit.
But Joe Biden was reading Putin’s cards.
Sanctions were placed on Russia after it annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, but Europe needed Russian gas and oil, so the revenue continued to flow in from the West, even as Russia sponsored separatist groups in eastern Ukraine.
Putin had watched his protégé, Donald Trump, alienate the European democracies in the EU and NATO, while Putin built up a war chest of foreign currency reserves that was supposed to carry Russia through the economic fallout from new sanctions until things settled down. But Putin waited too long to move on Ukraine.
Biden spent much of his first year in office working with Secretary of State Antony Blinken repairing ties with Western Europe, and Biden paid attention to intelligence briefings on the growing threat from Putin. Biden’s activity resulted in NATO and the European Union uniting in opposition to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. But as more than 190,000 Russian troops and armor massed on the Ukraine border, Biden’s Republican opponents seemed, at best, indifferent to what they saw as Biden’s problem, just as they had refused to support the withdrawal of American forces and allies from Afghanistan on the terms Trump had left his successor. The Big Lie Party’s refusal to unite behind Biden may have persuaded Putin that he could get away with the invasion of Ukraine.
When Russian troops moved into eastern Ukraine, after the Russia-dominated breakaway provinces declared independence Feb. 22, Trump said, “This is genius, Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine … as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful. I said, ‘How smart is that?’”
Trump added, “And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper, That’s the strongest peace force … We could use that on our southern border. That’s the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen. There were more army tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re gonna keep peace all right. No, but think of it. Here’s a guy who’s very savvy.”
Trump’s former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also undercut the US position, calling Putin “Very shrewd. Very capable. I have enormous respect for him.”
Trump and Pompeo got plenty of exposure on Russian state TV.
Right-wing talk show host Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, voiced what might be the Republican theme: “Who cares? This is a family dispute between two countries. One rather strong, and one very corrupt and weak.”
The loudest defender of the Kremlin view is Tucker Carlson on Fox News. ”Vladimir Putin does not want Belgium,” Carlson explained. “He just wants to keep his western borders secure. That’s why he doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO, and that makes sense.”
As for Ukraine? “It’s run by a dictator who’s friends with everyone in Washington,” Carlson said.
Conservative commentator Charlie Sykes noted, “Putin is fully aware that he faces a divided US, and that influential voices on the right have been channeling much of his own propaganda.
“By now the cast of Putin’s useful idiots is familiar, ranging from Tucker Carlson and Josh Hawley to Candace Owens, [Marjorie Taylor Greene] and Maria Bartiromo,” Sykes wrote in a Feb. 21 column on “Putin’s right-wing shills.”
“Putin can be forgiven if he thinks his ‘conservative’ allies represent the sentiment of MAGAWorld, coming as they do from some of Trump’s most loyal acolytes,” Sykes wrote. “And he may be especially emboldened if he believes that Trump himself may actually return to the Oval Office. So these right wing shills matter.”
Two weeks into the invasion, Ukraine’s army, using anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons supplied by the US and other NATO nations, was putting up a much tougher resistance than Russia expected. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed for NATO to establish a “no-fly” zone over Ukraine to stop Russian bombardment of the cities, but NATO leaders were wary that enforcing the no-fly zone would risk nuclear retaliation by Russia. However, the New York Times reported that 14 planeloads of weapons and other supplies arrived at one airfield on March 4.
Russian forces have switched to a scorched-earth campaign, bombing residential neighborhoods and preventing food and other essentials from reaching cities. Russian forces occupy a few cities but they are having trouble keeping their own supply lines flowing.
Kyiv eventually will fall, and President Zelensky might eventually have to accept NATO’s offer of a ride across the border, to set up a government in exile, but Russian forces will be spread thin trying to occupy Ukraine, and weapons likely will continue to flow across the western border to keep Ukraine’s defenders well-armed.
After polls and focus groups showed popular support for Ukraine, Republicans have paid lip service to the heroic Ukraine troops, but Senate Republicans are still talking about blocking the omnibus spending bill, which includes $10 billion for Ukraine, as well as $22.5 billion for the ongoing pandemic response.
Russian and Ukrainian officials have engaged in negotiations with little progress, as Putin is demanding that Ukraine demilitarize, accept the Russian annexation of Crimea and the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. and give up on joining NATO and the EU.
Concerns about Putin’s bellicose ambitions to put the Soviet Union back together have caused the governments of Georgia and Moldava to apply for EU membership while neighbors Finland and Sweden, after generations of neutrality, are considering joining NATO. Finland and Sweden already are sending assault rifles and anti-tank weapons to Ukraine — the first time Sweden is offering military aid since 1939, when it assisted Finland against the Soviet Union. And stereotypically neutral Switzerland has adopted the sanctions the European Union has imposed on Russian companies and froze assets of oligarchs to punish the invasion of Ukraine,
The Swiss banks turning against Putin must have given pause to Putin’s new ally, President Xi Jinping of China. Before the Beijing Olympics started, Putin and Xi celebrated their alliance. But Putin’s “peacekeeping mission” in Ukraine, which included the threat that he might use nuclear weapons if NATO intervened, has destabilized world markets. Putin has, to borrow a phrase from “Network,” the 1976 film about a deranged TV anchor, “meddled with the primal forces of nature,” for which he must atone. China declined to support Russia in the UN, abstaining on a Security Council resolution that Russia vetoed, as well as a General Assembly resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine.
We don’t often find ourselves on the same side as multinational corporations, but if bankers can get Russian oligarchs, generals and Xi to wonder if this war was really necessary, so be it. Putin is cornered. Will Republicans come to his rescue? — JMC
From The Progressive Populist, April 1, 2022
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