The format, with 10 candidates on stage each night, offered little more than glimpses of each candidate, but Elizabeth Warren and Kamila Harris had the biggest nights. In the first debate, Warren won cheers when she stood up for economic populism, after she was asked if significant changes could be risky to the economy. “Who is this economy really working for?” Warren asked. “It’s doing great for a thinner and thinner slice at the top. It’s doing great for giant drug companies. This is not doing great for people are trying to get a prescription filled. It’s doing great for people who want to invest in private prisons just not for the African-Americans and Latinx whose families are torn apart whose lives are destroyed and whose communities are ruined. It’s doing great for giant oil companies that want to drill everywhere just not for the rest of us who are watching climate change bear down upon us. When you’ve got a government—when you’ve got an economy that does great for those with money and isn’t doing great for everyone else that is corruption, pure and simple. We need to call it out. We need to attack it had on and we need to make structural change in our government, in our economy, and in our country.”
In the second debate, Harris took down frontrunner Joe Biden over his declaration that he could work with Republicans because he had worked with segregationist Democrats in the 1970s, when he was also opposed to court-ordered busing to integrate local schools. “I don’t believe you are a racist,” she began, “… But I also believe – and it’s personal and it was hurtful to hear you talk about the reputations of two United States senators who built their reputations and career on the segregation of race in this country.” She added that she was a beneficiary of busing in Berkeley, Calif. Some may argue it was an ambush by Warren, but Biden wasn’t prepared to answer it cogently, and that matters.
Democratic voters may increasingly come to realize that, if they nominate Joe Biden, they’ll spend the following four months to the election trying to explain to friends what Joe really meant to say.
During the debate, Bernie Sanders had little new to offer, after transforming the Democratic agenda over the past four years. In response to a question about his first priority if he was elected, Sanders rejected “the premise that there’s only one or two issues out there.” He spoke of the need for a broader approach. “We need a political revolution,” he said. “People have got to stand up and take on the special interests. We can transform this country.”
Julián Castro, former San Antonio mayor and former secretary of Housing and Urban Development, went into detail on immigration policy, outlining reforms of the proposing a “Marshall Plan” to help stabilize Central American countries people are fleeing. He also took on former congressman Beto O’Rourke of El Paso for failing to support the repeal of Section 1325 of the immigration law that criminalizes unauthorized entry into the country. O’Rourke said he supported legislation that would ensure that migrants seeking asylum and refuge in the US were not criminalized.
Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Ind., called for reforms to restore our democracy “before it’s too late. Get that right and climate, immigration, taxes and every other issue gets better.”
Of the 20 candidates who qualified for the June debates, Warren, Harris and Castro got the highest scores for their debate performances relative to their favorability rating before they took the stage, in a poll conducted by Morning Consult for FiveThirtyEight.com. “Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker also rated well, but their scores were more in line with their pre-debate favorability. Meanwhile, voters didn’t exactly think O’Rourke did badly on Night 1, but his grades were underwhelming given his popularity,” 538 noted. Joe Biden lost a bunch of voters — mostly to Harris, but also to Warren, Pete Buttigieg and others.
Most of the leading Democratic candidates have endorsed elements of a progressive agenda that includes a $15 minimum wage, some form of tuition/debt relief for college students, a Green New Deal to address climate change and some expansion of Medicare — either Medicare for All or a public option for Medicare to compete with private insurance plans. Several also have endorsed tax increases on the rich and corporations to pay for the progressive initiatives.
Republican Never-Trumpers are cautioning Democrats against reaching for too much, and some of the presidential candidates, such as former Colorado Gov. Hickenlooper and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennett, seemed to be aligning with those who caution that Dems are straying too far to the left, but most of the progressive proposals are popular with voters across the board. Conservative pundits, such as David Brooks, fret that Democratic populism will leave “moderates homeless,” but Robert Borosage replied, “In fact, the populist energy driving the debate gives whomever emerges with the nomination a far greater chance against Trump.”
Indeed, the Democratic nominee will be in a strong position going into the general election as Trump remains unpopular and apparently vulnerable in seven battleground states that he carried in the 2016 Electoral College, including Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Morning Consult running surveys show. Overall, Trump’s disapproval ratings have exceeded his approval ratings since two weeks after his inauguration, and approval ratings have been stuck in the low 40s (or high 30s) ever since. It was 42.2% in FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls July 1, while disapproval has ranged from the low- to mid-50s, and was 52.9% July 1.
However, a Civiqs poll for DailyKos released July 1 showed Trump even, or leading, in Pennsylvania, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Arizona, and Dems narrowly leading in Wisconsin, Florida, Maine, Minnesota, Michigan and New Hampshire. So it’s no time to relax.
Republicans figure voter suppression is insurance for retaining the White House. They have refined methods of doing that over the past several elections, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has blocked Democratic efforts to safeguard the electoral process.
Democrats also need to turn at least three seats to gain control of the Senate. Sen. Doug Jones is the Democrat facing the toughest re-election fight, in Alabama, but endangered Republican incumbents among the 22 Republicans who are up for election next year include Cory Gardner in Colorado, Susan Collins in Maine and Martha McSally in Arizona. If Trump pulls down the ticket, other endangered Republicans could include Joni Ernst in Iowa, David Perdue in Georgia, an open seat in Kansas as Pat Roberts is retiring, Steve Daines in Montana, Thom Tillis in North Carolina, an open seat in Tennessee, where Lamar Alexander is retiring, and possibly John Cornyn in Texas and Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.
Voters will be overwhelmed again in the second round of debates in Detroit July 30-31, before the Democratic National Committee requires candidates to hit 2% in multiple polls and 130,000 individual donors to qualify for September and October debates.
The only locks for the fall debates appear to be Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris and Buttigieg. O’Rourke is likely to qualify, but he probably will be on the bubble, along with Booker and Castro.
But, assuming Lying Don Trump (10,796 false or misleading claims as of June 10, and the Washington Post is still counting) remains the Republican standard-bearer, and Mitch McConnell remains the Republican leader in the Senate, one choice you can make now is to resolve to Vote Blue No Matter Who in 2020. — JMC
From The Progressive Populist, August 1, 2019
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